一个中间派给两党的建议
风城-671 03/31 5519
4.5/104
Since I criticized some dirty stink campaign rhetorics a few days ago, there has been request to talk from rational independent point of view. It is some suggestions for the candidates to win, not only a vocal racial group but all constituents. Apologize for the long writing.
*** How to win hearts and minds against candidates backed by democratic establishment who dare not speak against SCA5 ***
For aspiring Republican
Since 1992 Bill Clinton defeated George H. W. Bush in California with a decisive margin of 13% (46% vs. 32.6%). California has been shifting to deeper blue with 60.9% vs. 36.9% when Obama defeated McCain in 2008, a whooping margin of 24%. Along with Massachusetts, Hawaii and Rhode Island, the Democrats became supermajority in legislative branch in 2012. Since then only Massachusetts narrowly stepped back from supermajority with passing away of Ted Kennedy and coup of Scott Brown. For example, in California AD28, republican Chad Walsh attempted to run as "Independent" but still lose to Paul Fong with 38% vs. 62%, a whooping 24% deficit. A card-carrying GOP candidate may not do much better without appealing to independents and hope to meet a less entrenched democratic candidate, that means copetition.
It is not accidental for California to go this far, all the other major state: New York, Illinois, Michigan are all in solid blue, leaving only Ohio and Florida in battle ground and Texas still solid red. What should they do, -- retry Scott's formula, Texas magic or inventing some California's own come back?
Nationally Republican presidents has been rising and falling. So goes the states with largest populations. While Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan were widely popular Republican presidents, the win of George W. Bush and his controversial and polarizing policy has been the last curse on Republican. As a result, independents and minorities are driven away to Democratic party. It takes time to wear the effect off. The loss of Republican are not core supporters but the independents who refuse to sign on to either extremes. It is interesting to note that Republican's core support are now in States like Georgia, Mississippi or Alabama, the root of democrats prior to Civil War. With Martin Luther King and Civil Rights movement, the Republican and Democrats almost completely swapped their positions, supporters and bases.
To win the campaign, instead of relying on the "tax", "budget" or "small government" rhetorics George W. campaigned on but failed to and never could deliver. It is better to try something fresher to avoid independent run away as fast as they sense the lingering stink lies.
Firstly, be compassionate. Upholding the "Equal Opportunity" and campaign against "Equal Outcome", be more realistic and flexible on immigration issues. Work out an immigration solutions at state and federal level, resolving illegal immigrant issues for both Latinos and Asians. Balancing the need of family reunion, unskilled labor and skilled labor. That also means wooing Latino without alienate them with anti-SCA5 stance. This will also allow moderate Republican to take credit in "family value" front. Change the perception of Republican as the party of hatred to the party of compassion, what Lincoln and Grant was known for but Rove and Gingrich is notorious against. This is the deciding factor.
Secondly, play the "Pro Business" card, campaign against excessive legislation and allow business to run better and easier. The start up, crowd funding, and IPO are essential for Silicon Valley. Reform the patent law to reduce patent trolls. Solve budget problems rather than playing the Mutual Assured Destroy games.
Thirdly, be realistic with demographics change, social security and Medicare bankruptcy, providing solutions rather than being the endangered ostrich who only knows how to engage in the lose-lose stalemate war. This is probably less an issue in AD28 or such with constant immigration of young and exodus of gray beard to less expensive states around. It also mean that AD28 should have been more red than it is currently.
On the attack front, attacking the execution failure of ObamaCare website rather than focus on the care itself now that millions have signed on, speaking out against the lies and cover-up around of massive NSA spying program. While unlikely Republican can steer back from defence industry alliance or such program since Reagan, questioning legality and cover-up of Obama will help getting the coveted votes that could have gone to democrats. Vowing on rein in corruption and fraud, an always popular card even though few politician really deliver.
Lastly, hope supermajority issue gives voters some sympathy. Beware though you will be scrutinized to determine whether your anti-SCA5 is insincere opportunist. If you are not honest, sooner or later people campaign for equal opportunities will sense and dump you. People campaign for you on irrational emotion will not support you as far as people rationally support with you.
For Anti-SCA5 Democratic Candidates
You are in danger with the sometimes irrational wrath of blind "voting GOP" in your support base. Luckily the rational supporters are more accountable. Here's what you may want to consider what to do.
Firstly, highlight your integrity, independence and anti-SCA5 stances with potentially impacted races. While democrats in California Senator passed the SCA5 with the party leader's push to get Latino support in preparing for the Latino majority in the population, you have more chance to understand the bill and how it is different from moderate AA measures still allowed by supreme court and traditionally supported by Chinese, Asian and Jewish Americans. SCA5 in California is racial quota in disguise and should be abolished forever. Honestly tell them SCA5 will be dead with your vote and unwavering stance. Pointing out the demographics change may result in the short-sighted "racial caucus" in both parties to join hands and pass discriminating laws at the cost of other minorities. Your opponent in this race are more likely to support the short-sighed demands from the particular racial groups they are counting on.
Secondly, reminding that Republican doesn't necessarily mean anything better for middle class family. They promised but didn't and cannot deliver. The party leaders were hostile to issues from environment protection to adequate education funding. With money siphoned away by Bush tax-cut for super-rich and still unfinished war, adding demographics change and illegal immigrants burden, there's little money left to upkeep the state K-12 and post-secondary educations. This threats competitivity and future of all Californian's children, resulted in fighting of scant resources. Pushing for allowing more good universities with land grant for public school and accommodative policies for both public and private schools.
Thirdly, continue to explain and drum up support of immigration reform, allowing illegal immigrant path to realize American dream for all races equally. Most otherwise hardworking "illegal" immigrants are the result of need for low skilled labor and family reunion visa, not because of criminal intent. Allow equal opportunity for all race and ethnicities. At the same time fixing the tax issue and community support with them to reduce otherwise the burden on the state. Supporting measures to reduce wage gap and working poor. This will help them understand that you are not racist based on only self-interest.
Explaining that measures like SCA5 doesn't even help Latino, black since the root cause is the poverty and failed K-12 education in Latino and black communities. Same goes to poor Asian American communities. Help making K-12 schools there successful so that their kids have better futures in career. Instead of using racial quota, allowing school to continue to use the more fair socio-economical adjustment factor and scholarship to help talented but poor students to succeed in state universities. These non-racial factors already allowed black and Latino to maintain their percentage since passage of prop209. The re-emphasis of this and against racial quota will give everyone more equal opportunity in regard of their birth.
Lastly, be more pro-business from the party hard liner. Be more open in lower legal burden and help the state to be more competitive. Showing your ability to bridge the party gap and get the critical support for business communities. Reminding them that Democratic Bill Clinton's policies allowed the country and silicon valley to prosper. GOPs like George W. Bush ruined the opportunity to address long run structural deficit and squandered American's fortune.
Good Luck. The one should win if you are the true believers of Equal opportunity!
Reference -- state president vote history since end of WWII
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/15/us/politics/swing-history.html
